Reply To: Average multiplier value within and across Monte Carlo Simulations

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February 28, 2017 at 7:06 pm #4248
leonardo-fridleonardo-frid
Keymaster

Hi Josh,

I believe you are right that multipliers should not necessarily average to 1 across all timesteps within a Monte Carlo but the average value across Monte Carlos should equal 1. To illustrate, imagine a simple example where based on a 20 year fire history you would like to sample from a series of normalized multipliers for a single timestep (1 year) run. In this case it would be impossible and inappropriate to ensure the average multiplier value within the Monte Carlo to be 1, however you would expect that if you ran many Monte Carlo simulations the average multiplier value across all of them should be close to 1.

Regards,
Leonardo