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Reply To: How to integrate SDMs into STSM for an animal not plant species

Syncrosim Forums ST-Sim & State-and-Transition Simulation Models How to integrate SDMs into STSM for an animal not plant species Reply To: How to integrate SDMs into STSM for an animal not plant species

#4312
Colin DanielColin Daniel
Keymaster

I can think of two basic ways in which a species distribution model (SDM) can be linked to a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM).

The first approach fits a SDM to historical data, in order to predict species occurrence probabilities as a function of various predictor variables into the future, and then feeds these occurrence probabilities into the STSM in order modify the STSM transition probabilities over the course of a simulation. This is the approach used by Miller et al (2015). Here the output of the SDM is an input to the STSM. In this way the SDM can be used to predict future changes in plant species distributions in response to environmental variables, and then these projected changes in species distribution can in turn be used to modify future vegetation dynamics.

The other approach would be the reverse of this. Here you would also fit a SDM to historical data; however at least one of the predictor variables in your SDM would need to also be predicted by the STSM (e.g. land use/cover). You could then use the STSM to simulate future values for this predictor variable, and then feed these future projections back into your SDM to estimate future species ranges.

Which approach is most appropriate depends on your question. The former is well suited to incorporating the effects of climate change into models of vegetation dynamics. The later might be better suited to predicting the effects of changes in land cover on the future distribution of animal habitat.

Hope this helps, Colin

  • This reply was modified 3 years, 9 months ago by Tom RoeAdminTom RoeAdmin.