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Average multiplier value within and across Monte Carlo Simulations

Syncrosim Forums ST-Sim & State-and-Transition Simulation Models Average multiplier value within and across Monte Carlo Simulations

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  • #4236
    jhalofskyjhalofsky
    Participant

    Assuming I have normalized my multiplier values (used to build an MCM file) to equal one, my question is:

    Within an MCM file, should normalized multipliers for a transition within each Monte Carlo average 1 across all time steps? Or, can individual Monte Carlos vary but the average transition value across all Monte Carlos equal 1? I think it is the latter but I just wanted to make sure.

    Thanks in advance for the advice.

    #4248
    leonardo-fridleonardo-frid
    Keymaster

    Hi Josh,

    I believe you are right that multipliers should not necessarily average to 1 across all timesteps within a Monte Carlo but the average value across Monte Carlos should equal 1. To illustrate, imagine a simple example where based on a 20 year fire history you would like to sample from a series of normalized multipliers for a single timestep (1 year) run. In this case it would be impossible and inappropriate to ensure the average multiplier value within the Monte Carlo to be 1, however you would expect that if you ran many Monte Carlo simulations the average multiplier value across all of them should be close to 1.

    Regards,
    Leonardo

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